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1、教育與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長 一、關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的新模型 首先,我們來看看當(dāng)今經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家用來解釋經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的模型。對此我需小心從事,以免被誤以為我說話如同英國財(cái)政大臣戈登布朗——此公曾因“經(jīng)濟(jì)政策當(dāng)以‘新古典內(nèi)生增長理論’為基礎(chǔ)”之言論迷惑記者和公眾。暫且不管這個(gè)術(shù)語究竟意義如何,其中道理倒是非常簡單:關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的動(dòng)因存在著兩種對立的觀點(diǎn)。第一種觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為,趕超比領(lǐng)先更容易。這一思想為許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家所共識(shí),因?yàn)樗樟嗽S多自從我們?nèi)腴T以來便被灌輸?shù)母拍?。所謂的報(bào)酬遞減法則指出,消費(fèi)的量較少時(shí)所獲效用較高,消費(fèi)的量較多時(shí)則所獲效用較少。對于一個(gè)公司來說,當(dāng)存在許多富余生產(chǎn)能力時(shí),增加額外產(chǎn)出的成本較低,當(dāng)不存在富

2、余生產(chǎn)能力時(shí)增產(chǎn)的成本就很大。報(bào)酬遞減法則的概念可以說是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的利器:比如說它可以解釋為何麥當(dāng)勞不生產(chǎn)家具,為什么加拿大和美國是各自獨(dú)立的國家。這一概念也是由杰文斯和馬歇爾所開創(chuàng)的新古典經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)之核心理念。就增長理論來說,新古典模型為各國的GDP增長率將會(huì)收斂于一個(gè)由技術(shù)進(jìn)步?jīng)Q定的比率。由于各國的技術(shù)進(jìn)步率并不相同,因此我們有理由預(yù)期各國的經(jīng)濟(jì)將以不同的速度增長。但是由于窮國可以“復(fù)制”富國發(fā)明的技術(shù),而富國必須保持技術(shù)上的領(lǐng)先地位,因此也就不難理解為何窮國的增長速度快于富國, 通過假定產(chǎn)出簡單的由雇傭勞動(dòng)和資本決定,我們可以得到新古典模型的簡單變形模式。但是正如我以前指出的那樣,這種簡單的函

3、數(shù)在運(yùn)用于國際比較時(shí)效果一般較差,通過它們得到的預(yù)測結(jié)果與實(shí)際情況存在很大的差異。尤其是它們沒有考慮到窮國和富國平均人均收入之間的巨大差異。比如說,一個(gè)加拿大人的平均收入大約是一個(gè)中國人的25倍,但是新古典模型預(yù)測的結(jié)果僅僅是相差2.5倍。不管用什么標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來看,這都是一個(gè)相當(dāng)大的誤差。 但是曼昆等人證明,新古典模型的這一缺陷并非模型本身所致,而是在進(jìn)行經(jīng)驗(yàn)分析時(shí)所采取的方法不恰當(dāng)造成的。該模型錯(cuò)誤的假定只有兩種生產(chǎn)要素——資本和勞動(dòng),但是對勞動(dòng)的質(zhì)量卻只字未提。一旦考慮到勞動(dòng)力的質(zhì)量因素,比如說將教育作為一個(gè)關(guān)鍵變量納入生產(chǎn)函數(shù)之中,那么模型的缺陷就可以避免。這一增廣形式的新古典增長模型——所

4、謂“增廣”,是指模型納入了教育這一關(guān)鍵變量——是過去20年間第一個(gè)重要的新增長理論。 用現(xiàn)在的觀點(diǎn)看,由于這種模型未將技術(shù)進(jìn)步納入模型_之中,因此這類模型也叫做外生增長模型。但是這樣命名就會(huì)產(chǎn)生誤導(dǎo),因?yàn)槭聦?shí)上只是技術(shù)進(jìn)步而非增長,相對于模型來說是外生的。但是,這一術(shù)語并不會(huì)讓新古典增長模型產(chǎn)生嚴(yán)重的局限性。換句話說,這一模型實(shí)際上并沒有解釋清楚增長這一問題。這一模型僅僅是“推卸了責(zé)任”,它只是告訴我們,經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)以技術(shù)進(jìn)步?jīng)Q定的一個(gè)比率增長。那么我們自然就要問:又是什么決定了技術(shù)進(jìn)步率呢?這也是第二個(gè)重要的新增長理論。這一理論認(rèn)為,增長技術(shù)狀態(tài)是相互依存的。一個(gè)國家如果對研發(fā)加大投資力度的話,

5、會(huì)對增長產(chǎn)生更大的效果。根據(jù)這一觀點(diǎn),有的國家可以進(jìn)入增長和發(fā)展的良性循環(huán),而有的國家則將步入經(jīng)濟(jì)停滯的惡性循環(huán)之中。對此,可以試想一下南撒哈拉國家的情況。很早以前就有人將這一增長模型叫做“累積因果關(guān)系”。其他人注意到這一事實(shí):技術(shù)現(xiàn)在是由模型內(nèi)部決定的,因此把它叫做內(nèi)生增長理論。研發(fā)在該模型中的作用相當(dāng)重要——投資于研發(fā)必然意味著投資于教育和人力資本。支持這兩種主要的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模型的人都認(rèn)為,教育是增長的關(guān)鍵決定因素,但是對于其原因卻莫衷一是。新古典增長理論的鼓吹者認(rèn)為,高素質(zhì)的勞動(dòng)力可能是一種更富生產(chǎn)率的生產(chǎn)要素。內(nèi)生增長理論者也認(rèn)為,新知識(shí)的創(chuàng)造和發(fā)明至關(guān)重要。理論是這樣說的,那么實(shí)際情況

6、如何呢?為了檢驗(yàn)新老兩種理論,我們只需要簡單地考察加入教育和人力資本變量之后是否有助于解釋經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的國際差異。在若干最具影響力的研究當(dāng)中,萊文和瑞奈特的研究證實(shí):和新資本的投資比率一樣,教育確實(shí)具有影響,并且事實(shí)上具有很大的影響。 盡管存在兩組國家的區(qū)別,但是從該圖我們還是可以清楚地看到教育的作用。因此,相對于舊理論來說,新理論占了上風(fēng)。但是請記住,一共有兩種新理論。由于兩種觀點(diǎn)都認(rèn)為教育具有重要作用,因此想要評(píng)判兩種理論各自的優(yōu)劣還是存在許多困難。當(dāng)我們想要驗(yàn)證兩種理論孰優(yōu)孰劣時(shí),關(guān)鍵需要有一些獨(dú)特的特點(diǎn)。幸運(yùn)的是,我們的確可以發(fā)現(xiàn)兩種理論各自都有一些獨(dú)特的特點(diǎn),但是,這一特點(diǎn)不是教育,而

7、是收斂性。 但是,進(jìn)一步的分析可以提供更詳細(xì)的信息。該圖至少存在兩種可以識(shí)別的類型。第一類就是那些在過去20年間GDP增長了50 %或者更多的國家。其中一些初始收入水平較低的國家具有相當(dāng)高的增長率,比如說中國、馬來西亞、印度、韓國,以及毛里求斯和博茨瓦納這樣的小經(jīng)濟(jì)體。愛爾蘭也屬于這類國家,自從加入歐盟之后,它的發(fā)展速度很快,被人視作“凱爾特虎”。另一類國家的增長率較低,但是初始收入水平較高,比如美國、日本,以及一些北歐國家。如果我們把所有國家都看作一組的話,那么的確存在某種程度上的收斂性。另一方面,我們可以對那些過去20年間增長率為20%或者更低的國家進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)。在這些國家中,增長率最低的當(dāng)

8、屬大部分南撒哈拉國家和拉美國家。兩個(gè)地區(qū)的國家之間都存在一定程度的收斂性,比如說,薩爾瓦多不斷趕超著委內(nèi)瑞拉,加納則不斷趕超著贊比亞。但是如果把這些國家看作一個(gè)整體的話,則它們并未趕超遠(yuǎn)東和北大西洋國家。相對于繁榮的經(jīng)濟(jì)體來說,這些低增長率的經(jīng)濟(jì)體似乎陷于一個(gè)長期的停滯陷阱之中。 到目前為止,我們可以得到的結(jié)論是:存在不同的國家類型。在每一類國家內(nèi)部,由新古典增長機(jī)制所證明的趕超過程以或快或慢的速度發(fā)生了。但是在不同類別國家之間,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長則表現(xiàn)為一種累積因果模式,窮國仍然落后于富國。盡管這樣一來情況變得復(fù)雜了,但是卻給新古典趕超增長模型和內(nèi)生累積因果模型提供了各自的發(fā)展空間。 二、深化對教

9、育和增長的關(guān)系的理解 不管是哪個(gè)模型,都認(rèn)為教育會(huì)影響增長(盡管我們尚不清楚這種影響作用是如何以及為何發(fā)生的)。同樣,教育也無法解釋各國之間經(jīng)濟(jì)增長存在的許多差異。事實(shí)上,除非我們能引入更多的有助于理解增長動(dòng)因的變量,否則現(xiàn)有的模型僅能解釋國家之間增長率差異的35%。因此在隨后的演講中,我首先將對“教育為何具有影響作用”這一問題進(jìn)行討論,然后我將介紹其他一些可以影響增長的變量。到目前為止,我們一提到教育,就會(huì)將注意力集中在教育的數(shù)量上。但是,僅僅關(guān)注數(shù)量不能令人滿意,原因至少有二:首先,沒有考慮到教育質(zhì)量上的差異。其次,沒有考慮到受教育程度在一國內(nèi)部人口之間分布上的差異。以前我們只能解釋國家

10、之間增長率差異的35 % ,但是現(xiàn)在我們可以解釋40%還多。很顯然,教育質(zhì)量對于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和繁榮來說是一個(gè)重要的決定因素。國家之間的教育質(zhì)量的差異也是很明顯的。在英國,教育質(zhì)量得分為63分,加拿大為55分,法國、澳大利亞、日本和新西蘭分別為56、59、66和67分。再來看看那些窮國:博茨瓦納僅有32分,肯尼亞為30分,而玻利維亞、加納、莫桑比克、中非共和國、薩爾瓦多的得分更低。即使新古典模型的解釋能力再強(qiáng),但是在如此低的得分面前,我們還是難以看到這些發(fā)展中國家具有趕超富國的潛力。 由此我們可以得到一個(gè)政策啟示。世界銀行和其他國際組織已經(jīng)試圖在2015年全面普及初等教育也即100%的完成率。這種

11、對教育數(shù)量的投資頗受好評(píng),但是距離成功的路還有很遠(yuǎn)。2001 年整個(gè)非洲的小學(xué)完成率只有55%。但是,除了要迫切普及教育數(shù)量以外,加大對教育質(zhì)量的投資也很重要,并且還有助于促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。如果僅僅注重?cái)?shù)量投資而忽視質(zhì)量投資,那么效果也很差。我認(rèn)為,富國將優(yōu)秀的青年教師送往窮國支教,這是一個(gè)雙贏策略:他們不僅可以教授當(dāng)?shù)貙W(xué)生從而獲得鍛煉,也可以將自己的經(jīng)驗(yàn)傳遞給當(dāng)?shù)亟處?。這一計(jì)劃應(yīng)當(dāng)由教師派出國的政府資助一部分,因?yàn)榕沙鰢蚪處煹暮Ｍ饨?jīng)驗(yàn)獲得了收益。同時(shí),那些希望在普及教育的同時(shí)也提高教育質(zhì)量的國際機(jī)構(gòu)也應(yīng)當(dāng)對此進(jìn)行資助。 那么,教育不平等和增長之間到底有何關(guān)系呢? 直到前幾年,我們對這一問題還

12、無法回答。要衡量教育的分布不是一件簡單的事情,這需要完成各個(gè)教育層次的人群的信息,不僅包括當(dāng)前整個(gè)適齡年輕人組的信息,也包括那些仍然健在的各代人群的信息。對于許多國家來說,這種在本質(zhì)上接近歷史數(shù)據(jù)的數(shù)據(jù)集只能搜集到最近幾年的信息。盡管如此,還是有幾個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)集可以用來分析許多國家組別內(nèi)部的教育不平等狀況。數(shù)據(jù)集進(jìn)行過綜合研究。他們發(fā)現(xiàn),有明顯的證據(jù)表明,教育不平等會(huì)阻礙經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,并且這種阻礙作用要大于投資于受教育水平本身所具有的促進(jìn)作用。教育分布相對不平等的國家其經(jīng)濟(jì)增長情況也相對較差。那些習(xí)慣于從微觀視角研究教育經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的學(xué)者們對于這一基于宏觀數(shù)據(jù)的研究結(jié)果不應(yīng)感到驚訝。在發(fā)展中國家,投資于初等教

13、育的社會(huì)收益率一般都比投資于更高層次的教育要高。如果把南撒哈拉國家看作一個(gè)整體,初等教育投資的社會(huì)收益率為25 % ,而高等教育的收益率僅為11%。所以，我們也就不應(yīng)奇怪為何這些國家重點(diǎn)投資于初等教育。因此,在窮國,教育資源并沒有集中于精英階層。這也是到2015年全面普及初等教育的一個(gè)有力的保證。 三、其他影響增長的因素 我要說到的第一個(gè)有可能影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的因素就是所謂的經(jīng)濟(jì)開放程度,也即經(jīng)濟(jì)體是否向自由貿(mào)易開放市場,或者是否以關(guān)稅和配額的形式強(qiáng)加一些限制性貿(mào)易壁壘。 顯然,這是一個(gè)有爭議的話題。自由貿(mào)易運(yùn)動(dòng)和不斷加強(qiáng)的全球化趨勢已經(jīng)招致多方批評(píng)。一些環(huán)境保護(hù)人士視自由貿(mào)易為一種威脅,因

14、為跨國的貨物運(yùn)輸增加了污染——盡管我認(rèn)為這完全是兩個(gè)不相關(guān)的問題。一些左翼人士則因?yàn)橐庾R(shí)形態(tài)的原因抵制自由貿(mào)易,他們還認(rèn)為自由貿(mào)易是對國內(nèi)工人工作條件的一種威脅。一些援助性組織抵制自由貿(mào)易,因?yàn)樗麄冋J(rèn)為這有損發(fā)展中國家的利益——他們經(jīng)常想到的是西方國家總是以雙重標(biāo)準(zhǔn)一方面對發(fā)展中國家設(shè)置貿(mào)易壁壘,一方面又鼓吹自由貿(mào)易。(在這里,我想到了歐盟的不公正的一般性農(nóng)產(chǎn)品政策。)毫無疑問,也有一些激進(jìn)組織反對自由貿(mào)易,因?yàn)樗麄儗⑵湟曌鹘?jīng)濟(jì)帝國主義,比如泛濫全球的“麥當(dāng)勞化”。但是誰又能指責(zé)這種趨勢呢?因?yàn)槭聦?shí)上在那些被“麥當(dāng)老化”的地區(qū)確實(shí)有很多人選擇購買了漢堡包(否則這些店也不會(huì)存在了),這大概是因?yàn)?/p>

15、這種全球化的趨勢給當(dāng)?shù)厝嗣竦纳顜砹烁＠纳瓢伞? 另一方面,也存在許多支持全球化和自由貿(mào)易的力量。他們的理由很簡單:如果擬允許全世界的消費(fèi)者和商人以他們愿意的方式進(jìn)行交易,那么所有人都可以獲益。因此,我們就不該對從中國進(jìn)口的紡織品強(qiáng)加配額,因?yàn)檫@樣會(huì)剝奪我們喪失購買廉價(jià)的衣服的權(quán)利,同時(shí)也剝奪了中國在其具有比較優(yōu)勢的產(chǎn)業(yè)里的就業(yè)崗位。通過自由貿(mào)易,每個(gè)國家都可以專注于自己具有比較優(yōu)勢的領(lǐng)域。這樣一來,自由貿(mào)易體系下的世界產(chǎn)出會(huì)比其他任何一種貿(mào)易模式下都要高。最近歐盟和中國之間的“內(nèi)衣大戰(zhàn)”(迄今尚未圓滿解決) 充分說明,商業(yè)問題是如何變成一個(gè)燙手的“政治山芋”的。關(guān)于開放對增長的影響的研究

16、很多。其中許多都認(rèn)為,開放程度確實(shí)會(huì)刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。 為了理解這一機(jī)制是如何作用的。如往常一樣,縱軸表示經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率。開放程度的指標(biāo)反映在橫軸上,這是一個(gè)由薩克斯和華納提出的二元指標(biāo):如果某國執(zhí)行開放貿(mào)易政策,則取值為1(以是否存在高額關(guān)稅、非關(guān)稅壁壘、外匯黑市升水值偏高、政府對主要出口產(chǎn)品實(shí)行壟斷以及是否由社會(huì)主義政府執(zhí)政來衡量) ;否則取值為0。盡管這只是一個(gè)粗略的衡量開放程度的指標(biāo),但是該圖還是清楚的表明,不管怎么衡量,經(jīng)濟(jì)開放程度對于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長確實(shí)具有影響。從世界經(jīng)濟(jì)史的角度來看,自由貿(mào)易當(dāng)然很重要,對于那些20 世紀(jì)后半葉獲得獨(dú)立的殖民地國家來說就顯得更加重要。當(dāng)時(shí),反對自由貿(mào)易的論調(diào)甚囂

17、塵上,比如反對者認(rèn)為自由貿(mào)易有損本國的幼稚產(chǎn)業(yè)。蘇聯(lián)的迅速工業(yè)化給許多國家,特別是非洲國家,留下了深刻印象,因此這些國家放棄了完全融入全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的機(jī)會(huì)。但是小國不像大國那樣能夠從自身豐富多樣的資源中獲得收益,并且那些具有鮮明部落文化特征的國家也不同于那些具有強(qiáng)大且統(tǒng)一的傳統(tǒng)的國家。非洲國家采取的保護(hù)主義政策失敗了,其代價(jià)是廣大人民的生活福利受到了損失。 四、結(jié)論 埃里克漢森教授在《埃爾伯達(dá)的教育財(cái)政》中他這樣寫道:“教育提高生產(chǎn)過程中的勞動(dòng)有效性。通過受教育者的言傳身教,它還影響合作者的效率，教育通常會(huì)促進(jìn)創(chuàng)新的傳播,推動(dòng)研究和技術(shù)進(jìn)步。為了維持并提高現(xiàn)有的社會(huì)福利水平,促進(jìn)政府的民主,提高

18、經(jīng)濟(jì)的生產(chǎn)率,有必要加大中學(xué)后教育的支出?！? Education and Economic Growth 1. The new model of economic growth First of all, lets take a look at todays economists use to explain economic growth model. I care is to be engaged in to this, to avoid the mistake I speak as Gordon Brown, the chancellor of the

19、exchequer, Gordon Brown -- intolerance for "economic policy as neo-classical endogenous growth theory (post - neoclassical endogenous growth found) on the basis of" confused expression of journalists and the public. Regardless of whether the term meaning, the reason is very simple: on the drivers of

20、 economic growth there are two opposing points of view. The first kind of view is that catch more easily than lead. This thought consensus by many economists because it absorbs a lot since we started by infusion of concept. The so-called law of diminishing returns, points out that the less the amoun

21、t of consumption utility obtained high, consumption quantity is large, the gain less effective. For a company, when there is a lot of surplus production capacity, increase the cost of additional output is low, when there is no spare production capacity of the cost of production is very big. The conc

22、ept of the law of diminishing returns is arguably one of economics: furniture, for example, it can explain why McDonalds does not produce, why is Canada and the United States is a separate country. This concept is also by jevons (J evons) and Marshall (Marshall) created the core idea of new classica

23、l economics. In terms of growth theory, new classical model to national GDP growth rate will converge to the ratio of a determined by technological progress. (1) due to technological progress rate is not the same from country to country, so we have reasons to expect the economy will grow at a differ

24、ent speed. But due to poor countries to "copy" invention of technology, rich countries and rich countries must maintain technical leading position, so it is understandable why growing faster in poor countries to rich, By assuming simple output is determined by the wage labor and capital, we can ge

25、t simple deformation model of new classical model. But as I said before, this simple function effect when applying the international comparison generally poor, through them to get the prediction results and the actual situation is quite different. Especially they dont consider the gap between the po

26、or and rich countries the average per capita income. For example, a Canadian 25 times the average income is about a Chinese, but the new classical model of the predicted just differ 2. 5 times. By any standards, this is a considerable error. But Mankiw et al. (Mankiw et al., 1992) show that the ne

27、w classical model of this defect is not caused by the model itself, but in the approach taken by the improper analysis of the experience. Error of the model assumes that there are only two factors of production, capital and labor, but said nothing about the quality of the work. Once given the qualit

28、y of the labor force factors, such as the education as a key variable in production function, the model of defect can be avoided. The augmented form (augmented neo-classical growth model - the so-called "augmented", refers to the model into the education is the key variable -- over the past 20 years

29、 the first important new growth theory. In todays point of view, because the model does not include technical progress in __, so this type of model is also called the exogenous growth models. But this name will be misleading, because in fact only technological progress rather than growth, is exoge

30、nous relative to the model. However, this term does not make new classical growth model have serious limitations. In other words, this model does not actually explain growth this problem. This model is only "shirk the responsibility", it just tells us that the economy will be based on the technology

31、 progress of a rate increase. Then we will ask: what determines the rate of technological progress? This is the second important new growth theory. This theory is that growing technology state is interdependent. A country if the r&d investment, will have a greater effect on growth. According to this

32、 view, some countries can enter the virtuous cycle of growth and development, and in some countries will enter a vicious cycle of economic stagnation. To this, you can just imagine the situation in sub-saharan countries. Long ago there was a man who will be the growth model is called the "cumulative

33、 causation" (cumulative causation), such as card dole (Kaldor, 1966). Other people notice the fact that technology is determined by the internal model now, so it is called the endogenous growth theory. (1) research and development in the model is very important to the role of --, investing in resear

34、ch and development will inevitably means that investment in education and human capital. To support economic growth model of the two main thought, education is a key determinant of growth, but disagree about the reason. Neoclassical growth theory advocates believe that the high quality labor force m

35、ight be a more productivity of factors of production. Endogenous growth theory also thinks, the creation of new knowledge and invention is crucial. Actual situation theory is said so, then how? To test the new and old two theories, we simply examine in education and human capital variables In spit

36、e of the difference between the two groups of countries, but from the picture we can see clearly the role of education. Therefore, relative to the old theory, the new theory has the upper hand. But remember, there are two kinds of new theory. Due to both view that education plays an important role,

37、so want to judge two kinds of theory there are still many difficulties. Their respective advantages and disadvantages When we want to test the relative merits of two theories, the key need to have some unique characteristics. Fortunately, we can find two kinds of theories each have some unique featu

38、res, however, this feature is not education, but the convergence. However, further analysis can provide more detailed information. The picture there are at least two types that can be recognized. The first kind is the GDP grew by 50% in the past 20 years or more of the country. Some of the initial

39、 income level is quite high in countries with lower growth rates, such as China, Malaysia, India, South Korea, and Mauritius and Botswana such small economies. Ireland also belong to this kind of country, since joining the European Union, its development is very fast, is regarded as the "Celtic tige

40、r" (Celtic tiger). Another kind of the countrys growth rate is low, but the initial income level is higher, such as the United States, Japan, and some of the Nordic countries. If we see all countries as a group, so there is some degree of convergence. We can for those who are over the past 20 years,

41、 on the other hand, growth rate of 20% or less of state inspection. In these countries, the growth rate was lowest most sub-saharan countries and Latin American countries. Two regions of the country, there is a certain degree of convergence between el Salvador continuously catch up with venezuela, f

42、or instance, Ghana is constantly surpassing in Zambia. But if the country as a whole, they did not catch up with the far east and the north Atlantic countries. Low relative to the prosperity of economy, the growth rate of economy seems to be Mired in a long-term stagnation trap. (3) So far, we can

43、 get the conclusion is that there are different types of countries. (1) within each country, proved by the new classical growth mechanism of overtaking process happened at the speed of fast or slow. But in a different category between countries, economic growth is characterized by a cumulative causa

44、tion model, poor countries are still behind the rich. Although so things get complicated, but to the new classical catch-up growth model and endogenous cumulative causation model provides their own development space. 2. Deepen the understanding on the relationship between the education and growth

45、 Regardless of model, that education will influence growth (although we do not yet understand the impact happened how and why). Similarly, education also is unable to explain economic growth exist many differences between countries. In fact, unless we can introduce more variables will help understa

46、nd the growth drivers, or the existing model can only explain the 35% growth rate differences between countries. So later in the speech, I will first of all "why education has effect" discuss the issue, then I will introduce some other variables can affect growth. So far, when it comes to education,

47、 we will focus on the amount of education. But just focus on quantity not satisfactory, at least two reasons: first of all, without considering the differences of education quality. Second, without considering the level of education in a population distribution differences between instead. Before we

48、 could explain 35% of the growth rate differences between countries, but now we can explain more than 40%. Obviously, the quality of education to economic growth and prosperity is an important decision factor. Differences in the quality of education between countries is obvious. In Britain, educatio

49、n quality score is 63 points, for 55 points, Canada, France, Australia, Japan and New Zealand, 56, 59, 66 and 67 points respectively. Only 32 points and take a look at those poor countries: Botswana, Kenya is 30 points, and Bolivia, Ghana, central African republic, el Salvador, mozambiques score is

50、lower. Even if the new classical model interpretation ability strong again, but in the face of such a low score, is difficult for us to see these developing countries has the potential to catch up with rich countries. Thus we can get a policy implications. The world bank and other international or

51、ganizations have been trying to universal access to primary education in 2015 that a 100% completion rate. This kind of investment in the education quantity acclaimed, but the way success is far distance. The whole of Africa in 2001 primary school completion rate was only 55%. But, except to popular

52、ize education quantity urgently, increase investment in education quality is also very important, and it also helps to promote economic growth. If only pay attention to number of investment and ignore the quality, so the effect also is very poor. I think that rich countries will the outstanding youn

53、g teachers to teach in poor countries, it is a win-win strategy: they not only can teach students to obtain local exercise, can also pass their own experience to local teachers. The plan should be part of the government funding by the teachers sent abroad, because sent abroad for teachers profits fr

54、om the overseas experience. Meanwhile, those who hope in the popularization of education at the same time also to improve the quality of education also ought to funding from international agencies. Education, then, what is the relationship between inequality and growth? Until a few years ago, we c

55、ouldnt answer to this question. To measure the distribution of education is not a simple matter, this needs to be completed the education level of peoples information, including not only the current the school-age youth group information, including information of each generation of people who are st

56、ill alive. For many countries, this kind of close to historic data on the nature of the data set can only collect the information of recent years. 5. However, there are still a few data sets can be used to analysis many countries education inequality status within the group. Comprehensive research d

57、ata sets. They found that there is clear evidence shows that the education inequality seems to hinder the economic growth, and this effect than by investing in education level itself has a role in promoting. Education distribution relatively unequal countries in its economic growth is also relativel

58、y poor. Those who are accustomed to from microscopic Angle of view research scholars of education economics based on macro data for this study should not be surprised. In developing countries, investing in elementary education of the social yield is generally higher than investment in higher educati

59、on. If the sub-saharan countries as a whole, elementary education investment of the social yield is 25%, the yield of higher education is only 11%. So, we should not strange why these national key investment in elementary education. In poor countries, therefore, did not focus on elite education reso

60、urces. This is universal access to primary education by 2015, a powerful guarantee. 3. Other factors that affect growth I will come to first might influence factors of economic growth is the so-called economic openness degree, namely whether economies to free trade and open markets, or whether

61、 in the form of tariffs and quotas imposed some restrictive trade barriers. Obviously, this is a controversial subject. The globalization trend of the free trade movement, and continuously strengthen has incurred criticism. Some environmentalists see free trade as a threat, because the internation

62、al transport of goods increased pollution - although I dont think this is two issues. Some on the left is for ideological reasons against free trade, they also think free trade is a threat to domestic workers working conditions. Some aid organizations against free trade, because they think it detrim

63、ental to the interests of developing countries, they often think of the western countries always with double standards on the one hand, to set up trade barriers in developing countries, on the one hand and advocate free trade. (in this case, I think about the injustice of the European Unions common

64、agricultural policy.) There is no doubt that there are some radical groups against free trade, because they will be regarded as economic imperialism, such as flood "McDonalds" around the world. But who can blame the trend? Because in fact was "maidang aging" in those areas do have a lot of people ch

65、oose to buy a hamburger (otherwise the shop will not exist), probably because the growing trend of globalization has brought benefits to the local peoples life improved. On the other hand, there are also many support forces of globalization and free trade. Their reason is simple: if plans to allow

66、 consumers and businesses around the world in the way they are willing to trade, so everyone can benefit. Therefore, we should not be imposed on imports of Chinese textiles quota, because that would deprive the rights of the loss we buy cheap clothes, but also deprived of China has comparative advantage in the jobs in the industry. Through free trade, each country can focus on their area has a comparative advantage. As a result, the world of the free trade system would output th