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二、宏觀經濟計量與核算 MEASURING A NATION’S INCOME,1,●國民收入帳戶 ●投入產出表 ●資金循環(huán)表 ●國際收支表 ●國民資產負債表,國民帳戶體系 A SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS,2,Richard Stone(理查德·斯通),1984年獲諾貝爾經濟學獎。 二戰(zhàn)期間，完成《戰(zhàn)爭財源分析及1938和1940國民收入和支出估計》白皮書。時任英國財政部顧問的凱恩斯感動地說：“我們在一個通過統(tǒng)計的快樂時代中”。 1945年任劍橋大學新成立的應用經濟學系的第一任主任。 1950年，受聯(lián)合國統(tǒng)計委員會委托，出版《國民帳戶體系》（SNA），1968年修訂后正式出版。 1975年出版《社會和人口統(tǒng)計系統(tǒng)》（SSDS, Towards a system of social and demographic statistics ）。,3,Wassily Leontief(沃西里·里昂惕夫),1973年獲諾貝爾經濟學獎。 1906年出生在圣彼得堡，1929年任中國鐵道部顧問，1931年進入美國國民經濟研究局（NBER），1946年哈佛大學經濟學教授。 1941年出版《美國經濟結構：1919-1929》，第一次用投入產出法進行經濟結構分析。1966年出版《投入產出經濟學》。,4,,,Gross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of the income(收入)and expenditures(支出) of an economy. It is the total market value of all final goods and services(最終產品和勞務)produced within a country in a given time period.,Gross Domestic Product 國內生產總值,5,,,Important Features of GDP GDP的重要特征,Output is valued at market prices. It records only the value of final goods, not intermediate goods (the value is counted only once). It includes both tangible goods有形商品 (food, clothing, cars) and intangible services無形服務 (haircuts, housecleaning, doctor visits).,6,,,Important Features of GDP,It includes goods and services currently produced, not transactions交易 involving goods produced in the past. It measures the value of production within the geographic confines of a country.,7,,,Important Features of GDP,It measures the value of production that takes place within a specific interval of time, usually a year or a quarter (three months).,8,,,What Is Counted in GDP? 哪些經濟活動應計入GDP,GDP includes all items produced in the economy and sold legally合法的 in markets.,9,,,What Is Not Counted in GDP? 哪些經濟活動不能計入GDP,GDP excludes most items that are produced and consumed at home and that never enter the marketplace. It excludes items produced and sold illicitly非法的, such as illegal drugs.,10,,,Gross National Product 國民生產總值,Gross national product (GNP) is the total market value of all final goods and services produced within a given period of time by a nation’s permanent residents常住居民, regardless of where they are.,11,,,Three Other Measures of Income 另外三個收入變量,Net National Product (NNP)國民生產凈值 Personal Income個人收入 Disposable Personal Income個人可支配收入,12,,,Net National Product (NNP) 國民生產凈值,The total income of the residents of a nation after subtracting losses from depreciation折舊.,13,,,Personal Income 個人收入,The income that households and noncorporate businesses receive.,14,,,Disposable Personal Income 個人可支配收入,The income that household and noncorporate businesses have left after satisfying their obligations to the government.,15,Gross National Product,From Statistical Abstract of the United States,16,GNP — National and Per Capita Income,From Statistical Abstract of the United States,17,National Income,From Statistical Abstract of the United States,18,,,The Four Components of GDP 構成GDP的四個要素,GDP (Y ) is the sum of the following: ? Consumption (C) ? Investment (I) ? Government Purchases (G) ? Net Exports (NX) Y = C + I + G + NX,19,,,The Four Components of GDP,Consumption (C)（消費）: ? The spending by households on goods and services, with the exception of purchases of new housing. Investment (I)（投資）: ? The spending on capital equipment, inventories, and structures, including new housing.,20,,,The Four Components of GDP,Government Purchases (G)（政府購買）: ? The spending on goods and services by local, state, and federal governments. ? Does not include transfer payments because they are not made in exchange for currently produced goods or services. Net Exports (NX)（凈出口）: ? Exports minus imports.,21,,,Breakdown of U.S. GDP: 1996,22,,,,Breakdown of U.S. GDP: 1996,Consumption 69 %,,23,,,Investment 15%,Breakdown of U.S. GDP: 1996,Consumption 68 %,,24,,,,Consumption 68 %,Government Purchases 19%,Breakdown of U.S. GDP: 1996,,Investment 15%,,25,,,,Net Exports -1 %,Breakdown of U.S. GDP: 1996,Consumption 68 %,Investment 15%,Government Purchases 19%,,,,26,,,Real versus Nominal GDP 實際GDP與名義GDP,Nominal GDP values the production of goods and services at current prices現(xiàn)行價格. Real GDP values the production of goods and services at constant prices固定價格.,27,,,Real versus Nominal GDP,An accurate view of the economy requires adjusting nominal to real GDP by using the GDP deflator縮減指數(shù).,28,價格指數(shù)(Price Index),拉斯佩雷斯(Laspeyres)指數(shù)： 帕斯卡(Pascke)指數(shù)：,29,,,GDP Deflator GDP縮減指數(shù),The GDP deflator measures the current level of prices relative to the level of prices in the base year基年. It tells us the rise in nominal GDP that is attributable to a rise in prices rather than a rise in the quantities produced.,30,,,GDP Deflator,The GDP deflator is calculated as follows:,31,,,GDP Deflator,The GDP deflator is calculated as follows:,32,,,Converting Nominal GDP to Real GDP,Nominal GDP is converted to real GDP as follows:,33,,,Converting Nominal GDP to Real GDP,Nominal GDP is converted to real GDP as follows:,34,,,,,Consumer Price Index 消費者價格指數(shù),The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the overall cost of the goods and services bought by a typical consumer. It is used to monitor changes in the cost of living生活費用 over time. It reports the movement of prices using an index number.,35,,,,,Consumer Price Index,When the CPI rises, the typical family has to spend more dollars to maintain the same standard of living.,36,,,,,The Consumer Price Index versus the GDP Deflator 消費者價格指數(shù)與GDP縮減指數(shù),Economists and policymakers use both the GDP deflator and the consumer price index to gauge how quickly prices are rising. There are important differences between the two.,37,,,,,The Consumer Price Index versus the GDP Deflator,The CPI . . . . . . includes only consumer goods. . . . includes imports. . . . is measured using a fixed basket of goods and services固定的一籃子商品和勞務.,38,,,,,The Consumer Price Index versus the GDP Deflator,The GDP Price Deflator . . . . . . includes all goods and services produced domestically. . . . excludes imports. . . . is measured using currently produced goods and services.,39,,,GDP and Economic Well-Being GDP和經濟福利,GDP is the best single measure of the economic well-being of a society. GDP per person tells us the income and expenditure of the average person in the economy.,40,,,GDP and Economic Well-Being,Higher GDP per person indicates a higher standard of living生活水準. GDP is not a perfect measure of the happiness or quality of life生活快樂和質量, however.,41,,,GDP and Economic Well-Being,Some things that contribute to well-being are not included in GDP. ? The value of leisure閑暇價值. ? The value of a clean environment環(huán)境衛(wèi)生. ? The value of almost all activity that takes place outside of markets與市場活動無關的, such as the value of the time parents spend with their children.,42,