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1、房地產(chǎn)金融學 國世平,深圳大學國際金融研究所所長、教授 博士生導(dǎo)師,國世平教授介紹,深圳大學國際金融研究所所長、教授、博士、博士及博士后導(dǎo)師。 國世平教授分別在湘潭大學、武漢大學就讀，獲經(jīng)濟學碩士、博士學位，1991年1992年度在澳大利亞悉尼大學進行博士后研究。國家級有突出貢獻專家、國家發(fā)改委顧問、香港官方最高學術(shù)機構(gòu)香港學術(shù)評審局專家委員，國家教育部文科專家組專家評審委員，香港大學亞洲研究中心名譽研究員、臺灣大學客座教授、美國史丹福大學客座教授、中山大學兼職教授。在海內(nèi)外發(fā)表學術(shù)論文500余篇，出版學術(shù)著作20多部。 兼任五個上市公司獨立懂事。,第一章、緒論,一、問題的提出 1、

2、房地產(chǎn)在經(jīng)濟中的地位 2、房地產(chǎn)在銀行中的地位 3、房地產(chǎn)對中國居民的重要性,二、房地產(chǎn)需求與供給,1、房地產(chǎn)需求 1）投資需求和消費需求 2）居住需求和非居住需求 3）房地產(chǎn)的生理需求和鋼性需求 2、房地產(chǎn)的供給 1）土地 2）資金 3）建材,三、房地產(chǎn)的不完全競爭與價格決定,1、土地的壟斷決定不完全競爭 2、房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)常在政府部門中尋租 3、小的房地產(chǎn)公司往往拿不到土地 4、價格常常由壟斷決定,四、房地產(chǎn)泡沫與房地產(chǎn)周期,1、房地產(chǎn)非常容易產(chǎn)生泡沫 2、購租比反映泡沫 3、入住率反映泡沫 4、房地產(chǎn)周期,四、房地產(chǎn)泡沫,1、什么叫房地產(chǎn)泡沫？ 2、房地產(chǎn)泡沫的原因 1）對未來預(yù)期太好 2）土

3、地的價格越來越高 3）人們對房子的要求越來越高 4）房子最近幾年沒有跌,3、房地產(chǎn)泡沫的確定,1）房地產(chǎn)的價格 2）房地產(chǎn)與人們收入 3）房地產(chǎn)與租金比 4）房地產(chǎn)與入住率,4、房地產(chǎn)泡沫的表現(xiàn)形式,1）房地產(chǎn)暴漲暴跌 2）房地產(chǎn)的投機過度 3）房地產(chǎn)的入住率很低 4）銀行信貸過度移入房地產(chǎn),五、銀行信貸與房地產(chǎn)供求,1、房地產(chǎn)發(fā)展離不開銀行 2、房地產(chǎn)購買離不開銀行 3、房地產(chǎn)利用信貸有很大的杠桿作用 4、房地產(chǎn)對信貸的推動作用 5、信貸對房地產(chǎn)的拉動作用,六、證券市場與房地產(chǎn),1、房地產(chǎn)公司從資本市場拿錢 2、房地產(chǎn)公司上市 3、資本市場的錢流向房地產(chǎn) 4、資本市場對房地產(chǎn)的推動作用

4、,七、房地產(chǎn)泡沫與金融危機,1、美國次貸危機的原因 2、房地產(chǎn)泡沫對金融的沖擊 3、房地產(chǎn)泡沫的危害 4、控制房地產(chǎn)風險,八、房地產(chǎn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展,1、房地產(chǎn)價格穩(wěn)定 2、房地產(chǎn)供應(yīng)穩(wěn)定 3、房地產(chǎn)需求穩(wěn)定 4、房地產(chǎn)應(yīng)該保持居住功能 5、房地產(chǎn)不能成為投機的工具,九、為大的公司提供網(wǎng)絡(luò)銀行服務(wù),1）企業(yè)越來越需要網(wǎng)絡(luò)銀行服務(wù) 2）銀行和企業(yè)進行網(wǎng)絡(luò)業(yè)務(wù)來往 3）企業(yè)所有網(wǎng)絡(luò)業(yè)務(wù)都通過銀行,十、為中小企業(yè)服務(wù)的轉(zhuǎn)變,1、既要安全，又要創(chuàng)新 2、創(chuàng)造非同質(zhì)的競爭 3、建立中小企業(yè)的數(shù)據(jù)庫 4、與政府的中小企業(yè)服務(wù)中心建立戰(zhàn)略同盟,七、2010年的投資選擇,1、房地產(chǎn) 2、股票市場 3、外匯

5、4、存款 5、黃金,,謝 謝,Analysis from the view of politics,The circulation of Asian-money and the establishment of Asian-monetary area are not economic matter only, but also a significant political matter. It requires Asian countries to abandon their self-determination of monetary policies, and deeply conce

6、rns the countries economic and political interest. General speaking, the circulation of Asian-money and the establishment of Asian-monetary area face two obstacles in politics.,Analysis from the view of politics,First, Asian countries are lack of necessary coherence in politics. For history reasons,

7、 Asian countries are more complex and unstable than European countries in political system, religion, ideology and other matters. Asian countries, in political system, including capitalism and socialism; in religion, existing Buddhism, Taoism, Christianism, and Islamism; and different countries have

8、 their unique tradition and culture. Conflict between different cultures happen usually. All these matters seemed to be dependent on monetary unity, but indeed, these matters really bring many obstacles to monetary unity. Furthermore, Asia now faces some sensitive and acute political matters. Such a

9、s, the debate for the war bequeaths matter among Japan, China, and Korea. And the defense and restrain among them; the unity matter between Mainland China and Taiwan; the defenses and suspicion between east-Asian countries and east-ally; and so on. For these matters, the Asian-area cooperation empha

10、size on informality; emphasize on achieve common cognition. This pattern disagrees with monetary cooperation. Because monetary unity requires some systems to ensure interest compromise and cooperation. Asian countries must deeper their understanding and communicating; enhance their trust; build the

11、foundation for deeper financial cooperation.,Analysis from the view of politics,Second, a leading country is absent for Asian-monetary area building. The shape of a united monetary system requires necessarily a leading country. The fact that European monetary unity can develop so well as todays depe

12、nds much on the power and stable Germany and its Mark. Germany plays an extremely important role in the process of European monetary unity. However, Asia lacks of a country like Germany. Japan as the world second, east-Asia first economic power, possesses the strongest economic strength. But its pol

13、itical position is not suit to its economic position. Japan bequeaths many political antipathies to its neighbor countries in world war two. Furthermore, Japan makes lots of dissensions with other Asian countries for its attitude to the history, which seriously damages Japan s prestige in Asia. Besi

14、des, Japans continuous economic decline and the exchange rate unstable situation, make Japan short of power to take the responsibility of building a united monetary area. Though China obtained big economic progress in recent years, its not powerful enough to be the core of the united monetary area.

15、Therefore, Asia can hardly emerge a leading country to push the Asian monetary unitys development in short time.,Analysis from the view of politics,Hence, from the analysis above, we can learn that at present, the political conditions for the circulation of Asian-money and the establishment of Asian

16、-monetary area are far immature. Asian countries have to make continuous effort to set up a united Asian-monetary system., The strategies adopted by Asian countries nowadays,Although, no matter how economic conditions or political conditions about a series of problems of how to establish a system of

17、 Asian uniform monetary nowadays are immature, Asian countries still make some efforts for it. At least, these countries can do some preparative work that settles a stable foundation for the following cooperation of a uniform monetary system.,The strategies adopted by Asian countries nowadays,Firstl

18、y, Asian countries can enforce communications among one another on the base of APEC. By such an equal and mutual benefit and relative free economic cooperative organization, Asian countries can get more understandings about one another, accelerate co-operations between each other and even can realiz

19、e a political co-operation and understanding in a so fair and loose environment. Meanwhile, such a co-operation can boost continually local economy on the foundation of mutual aid. And such a co-operation is also very important for following continually embedded both economic and financial co-operation in Asian countries, even for a uniform monetary.,The end,Thank you for your attention,