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外文資料及中文譯文 China’s Consumer Culture Comes of Age Heller Josephi Could China grow into a nation of shoppers? The country is better known around the world for its factory workers and exports. But to put China’s economic growth on a steadier glide path, especially in a global slowdown, the Chinese government wants to shift the drivers of the economy towards consumer demand at home. By the looks of the glitzy shopping malls in Beijing and Shanghai, selling everything from Louis Vuitton luggage to Lenovo laptops, China is well on its way. Certainly, with 1.3 billion potential consumers, the future is bright for Chinese retailers. “In the next five to 10 years, the retail sector will go through dramatic growth,” says Wharton marketing professor John Zhang. A quarter of a billion people have migrated from the countryside to the cities in the last 25 years, and rising incomes are spurring an expanding middle class. By 2025, that middle class is expected to number 612 million, or 76% of the population, up from 43% in 2006, according to the McKinsey Global Institute. Eventually, the bourgeoisie will be dropping an ever greater portion of their estimated $13,000 to $54,000 annual income (adjusted for purchasing power parity) in stores, says McKinsey. In a 2007 McKinsey & Co. survey of 6,000 Chinese, two-thirds of the respondents already count shopping as a favorite activity. Last year, the retail industry grew 17%, and is forecast to grow 13% to 14% this year even in the midst of a slowdown in the Chinese economy, says Matthew Moneyhon, managing partner at Ergo, a New York market research firm. Yet, for all the potential, home-grown Chinese retailers are still in the early days of building a sector that matches the efficiencies of counterparts in developed economies. Today, Chinese retail chains account for only 10% of the entire retailing sector in China, with traditional mom-and-pops comprising most of the stores patronized by Chinese across the country, says Jeff Walters, principal at the Boston Consulting Group office in Beijing. “Even supermarkets that look modern from the outside are really pseudo-modern,” says Walters. “Decisions are still made locally; they still run as independent stores,” rather than as a part of a larger integrated operation. Many of today’s large retailers started with a bang, growing rapidly, but now face new challenges at their next stage of growth. “In China, everything happens in a compressed time frame,” says Edwin Keh, a Wharton School lecturer and former chief operating officer of Wal-Mart Global Procurement. “China went from informal, unorganized marketplaces into shopping mall booms without much in between. There’s a degree of challenge in that.” Retailers’ challenges include transforming themselves from real estate operators to retail professionals, expanding to smaller cities, and managing the onslaught of e-commerce. From Landlord to Retailer Many of China’s largest home-grown retailers started essentially as landlords. Electronics purveyors Nanjing-based Suning Appliance Co. and Beijing-based Gome Electrical Appliances Holdings, for example, buy prime locations in major cities and rent floor space to sellers to set up their own mini-shops. The mini-shops are run by the suppliers’ employees, who make merchandising and pricing decisions on their products. The landlord-retailer, which has few in-store employees, takes a percentage of the suppliers’ sales, ranging from 5% for a strong international brand, to as high as 30% for an unknown domestic brand, says Jeongwen Chiang, chairman of the Marketing department at the China Europe International Business School (CEIBS) in Shanghai. “It’s reminiscent of the concession model of 19th century retailers in the U.S., where all the margins went to concession [the retailer], not concessionaire [the seller],” says Wharton professor of management Marshall W. Meyer. The model is imported from other Asian countries, notes Wharton’s Zhang. During the early days of economic reform, Chinese state-owned department store managers went to Japan and Hong Kong to acquire know-how and brought back the store-within-a-store format, he says. According to Walters of the Boston Consulting Group: “It’s an easy transition from traditional to modern retail,” since stores within a store are similar to an old-fashioned bazaar. The model facilitates go-go expansion. Because retail penetration is so low in China, “the easiest way to grow is to continue opening stores,” says Walters. “If I have five stores and I want 1,000 stores in five years, the landlord model is my first choice. Because the retailer shares the burden of running stores with the supplier, it can grow faster via new store openings.” If retailers can grow through new store openings, they don’t have to worry about much else, say experts. “If you have a hot place for your store, you don’t have a reason to improve your operations,” notes Nephi Zhang, senior analyst of retail at IDC China in Beijing. As a result, “there are challenges retailers haven’t dealt with yet that will become more important over time,” Walters notes. They include the product management, pricing, marketing, customer service and analytical skills needed to increase traffic and basket size at each individual store to juice same-store sales. Suning and Gome are now starting to build that capability, including installing data capture and analysis of customer demand. Says a speaks person offor Gome Electronic: “Compared with leading retailers in the world, Chinese retailers right now are still operating at the stage where they manage properties, suppliers and some of the products…. Gome has started a transformation to a new business model based on consumer-orientation and full-range consolidation on supply chain.” Suning is also expanding to take advantage of new opportunities, according to media reports. China Retail News noted in a report this month that the electronics and home appliances retailer opened 400 new outlets in 2011, including super flagship stores, Laox stores and boutiques. Suning plans to open another 400 outlets this year, China Retail News wrote, and quoted Jin Ming, president of Suning Appliances, who said the company would “establish five new major procurement and sales centers.” From Bricks and Mortar to Cyberspace Now, e-commerce is coming into China’s retail scene. With 40% broadband penetration nationwide and widespread smartphone use, China is ripe for a takeoff in online shopping, which could soon exceed the level in the U.S., says Wharton Marketing professor David Bell. In addition, e-commerce has the potential to catalyze change in both the landlord model of retailing and expansion to smaller cities. E-commerce can also speed the evolving relationship between retail landlords and their store-within-a-store suppliers, where the latter are starting to balk at the terms they’re dealt. “Because e-commerce has come along as an alternative, traditional retailers may be forced to be a little kinder to tenants,” says CEIBS’s Chiang. Smaller suppliers see e-commerce as a way to sell products nationwide without having to give a cut to retailers. One of Chiang’s MBA students used to sell mobile handsets through traditional retailers who took a big chunk of his revenues. Now, he is selling his products through Taobao, China’s eBay-like site. E-commerce can help retailers reach inland consumers in smaller markets. “There are a lot of people spread in the interior, who have no luxury to go to fancy supermalls,” says Chiang. “E-commerce can compensate somewhat and maybe take more and more share” from bricks and mortar shops. Gome aims to have Gome Online Mall account for 15% of the company’s total sales and 20% of China’s total online sales for home electronics in two to three years, according to company’s public statement. Perhaps the biggest change e-commerce can bring to Chinese retailing is a greater orientation towards the consumer. “Consumers will not be satisfied in the same way they were before,” says IDC’s Zhang. “They will require from retailers lower prices and better services.” As Chinese retailers learn how to serve customers better, and customers learn more about their prerogatives, China will start shifting into a consumer nation. 中文譯文 中國的消費者文化日趨成熟 中國能否成長為一個購物者的國度？中國享譽全球的是中國的工廠、工人和出口。但是在全球經(jīng)濟放緩的背景下，為了使中國經(jīng)濟更穩(wěn)定地發(fā)展，中國政府希望將經(jīng)濟增長的驅(qū)動力轉(zhuǎn)向國內(nèi)需求。 在北京和上海，五光十色的商場隨處可見，銷售的商品從路易·威登皮箱到聯(lián)想筆記本電腦應(yīng)有盡有。由此可見，中國正在沿著由內(nèi)需推動經(jīng)濟增長的道路上前進(jìn)。當(dāng)然，中國零售商的未來是光明的，因為中國擁有13億潛在的消費者。沃頓商學(xué)院市場營銷學(xué)教授張忠（John Zhang）表示：“在未來的5到10年，中國的零售業(yè)將迅猛增長。” 在過去的25年間，2.5億中國人從農(nóng)村遷移到城市，隨著的收入增加，中國的中產(chǎn)階級在不斷擴大。麥肯錫全球研究院的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在2006年中產(chǎn)階級占中國人口的43％，而到2025年，中產(chǎn)階級的人數(shù)預(yù)計為6.12億，將占中國人口的76％。麥肯錫的觀點認(rèn)為，中產(chǎn)階級的年收入約為13,000至54,000美元（按購買力平價調(diào)整），中產(chǎn)階級用于購物的收入比例將不斷上升。2007年麥肯錫咨詢公司對6000位中國人做了調(diào)查，三分之二的受訪者已經(jīng)將購物作為他們最喜愛的活動。一家位于紐約的市場研究公司Ergo的董事總經(jīng)理Matthew Monehon表示，零售業(yè)去年增長了17％，今年雖然中國經(jīng)濟放緩，但零售業(yè)預(yù)計將增長13％至14％。 然而，雖然很有潛力，中國本土的零售商行業(yè)仍然處在初期階段，其效率很難與發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟體的零售商行業(yè)匹敵。波士頓咨詢集團北京辦事處負(fù)責(zé)人杰夫·沃爾特斯（Jeff Walters）表示，目前中國零售連鎖店僅占中國整個零售業(yè)的10％，中國各地消費者光顧的主要還是傳統(tǒng)的小賣部?！巴獗砻菜片F(xiàn)代的超市其實是偽現(xiàn)代的。各種決策仍然是在本地做出的，它們?nèi)匀皇仟毩⑦\營的門店”，而不是作為一個大的整體統(tǒng)一運作。 今天很多大型的零售商都有一個好的開始，增長迅速，但它們目前處在增長的另一個階段，面臨著新的挑戰(zhàn)。沃頓商學(xué)院講師、沃爾瑪全球采購前首席營運官埃德溫·肯（Edwin Keh）表示：“在中國，一切都發(fā)生地特別快。中國從非正式、無組織市場時代直接進(jìn)入了購物商場時代，中間沒有多少過渡，所以導(dǎo)致了一些挑戰(zhàn)的出現(xiàn)?！绷闶凵堂媾R的挑戰(zhàn)包括將自己的定位從房地產(chǎn)運營商轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榱闶蹖I(yè)人才，去小城市發(fā)展業(yè)務(wù)，并應(yīng)對電子商務(wù)的沖擊。 從業(yè)主到零售商 許多中國本土最大的零售商最初基本都是以業(yè)主身份發(fā)家的。例如，南京的蘇寧電器有限公司和北京國美電器控股公司都在主要城市的黃金地段購買商場，然后將店面出租給賣家，讓賣家搭建自己的小商店。供應(yīng)商的員工負(fù)責(zé)這些小店的運營、以及產(chǎn)品銷售和定價決策。中歐國際工商學(xué)院（CEIBS）市場營銷學(xué)系系主任蔣炯文（Jeongwen Chiang）表示，這些‘業(yè)主-零售商’的店內(nèi)員工往往很少，它們按照供應(yīng)商銷售額的一定比例向供應(yīng)商收取費用，各供應(yīng)商的比例不盡相同，國際著名品牌的比例可能是5％，不知名的國產(chǎn)品牌的比例可能高達(dá)30％。沃頓商學(xué)院管理學(xué)教授馬歇爾?梅耶（Marshall W. Meyer）指出：“這讓人想起19世紀(jì)美國的零售商，當(dāng)時所有的利潤都?xì)w業(yè)主[零售商]，而不是經(jīng)營者[賣方]?！? 沃頓商學(xué)院的張教授表示，這種模型是從其他亞洲國家學(xué)來的。他說，在經(jīng)濟改革初期，中國的國有百貨公司的經(jīng)理去日本和香港學(xué)習(xí)考察，并帶回了‘店中店’模式。波士頓咨詢集團的沃爾特斯表示：“從傳統(tǒng)過渡到這一模式比較容易”，因為店中店模式類似于傳統(tǒng)的集市。 沃爾特斯表示，這種模式有利于外延式擴張，“因為中國的零售滲透率非常低”，所以增長最簡單的辦法就是繼續(xù)開新店?！叭绻椰F(xiàn)在有五家店，在五年內(nèi)我想有1000家店，業(yè)主模式將是我的第一選擇。因為零售商可以與供應(yīng)商共同承擔(dān)商店運營成本，可以通過開新店取得更快的增長?！? 專家表示，如果零售商可以通過開新店實現(xiàn)增長，他們就不必?fù)?dān)心別的事情。位于北京的IDC中國公司高級零售分析師張先生（Nephi Zhang）指出：“如果你商店的地段好，你便沒有必要去提升運營。”沃爾特斯表示，所以，“有些挑戰(zhàn)零售商目前尚未應(yīng)對，隨著時間的推移它們將變得更加重要?！边@些挑戰(zhàn)包括產(chǎn)品管理、定價、市場營銷、客戶服務(wù)、以及增加客戶流量、人均銷量及同店銷售額所需的分析能力。 蘇寧和國美正在開始這方面的能力建設(shè)，包括進(jìn)行數(shù)據(jù)采集和客戶需求分析。國美電器相關(guān)人士表示：“與世界上領(lǐng)先的零售商相比，中國的零售商目前還處在管理物業(yè)、供應(yīng)商和部分產(chǎn)品的經(jīng)營階段......國美電器已開始轉(zhuǎn)向基于消費者導(dǎo)向和供應(yīng)鏈全面整合的新商業(yè)模式?！? 媒體報道顯示，蘇寧電器也在抓住新機遇不斷擴張?！袊闶坌侣劇驹略谝环輬蟾嬷兄赋?，電子和家電零售商蘇寧在2011年開設(shè)了400家門店，其中包括超級旗艦店、LAOX門店和精品店。蘇寧計劃今年再開設(shè)400家門店?！袊闶坌侣劇鎏K寧電器總裁金明表示，蘇寧將“建立五個新的大型采購和銷售中心?！? 從實體商店到網(wǎng)絡(luò)空間 現(xiàn)在，電子商務(wù)進(jìn)入了中國零售業(yè)市場。沃頓商學(xué)院營銷學(xué)教授大衛(wèi)·貝爾(David Bell)表示，中國的寬帶普及率為40％，智能手機的普及率很高，這為中國網(wǎng)上購物的迅猛發(fā)展創(chuàng)造了成熟的條件，它可能很快就會超過美國的水平。此外，電子商務(wù)有可能成為零售‘業(yè)主模式’改變以及向小城市擴張的催化劑。 電子商務(wù)還可能加快‘零售業(yè)主’和‘店中店’供應(yīng)商兩者關(guān)系的轉(zhuǎn)變。目前，后者已經(jīng)?開始對前者開出的條件感到難以接受。中歐國際工商學(xué)院的蔣教授表示：“作為一種替代方式，電子商務(wù)的出現(xiàn)，可能會迫使傳統(tǒng)零售商改善對租戶的待遇”。通過電子商務(wù)，小型供應(yīng)商不必將部分利益讓渡給零售商，也可以在全國范圍內(nèi)銷售產(chǎn)品。蔣教授的一位MBA學(xué)員以前通過傳統(tǒng)零售商銷售手機，其收入的一大塊必須給零售商。但現(xiàn)在，他通過淘寶銷售產(chǎn)品，淘寶網(wǎng)類似于美國的eBay（易趣）網(wǎng)站。 電子商務(wù)可以幫助零售商向內(nèi)地小市場的消費者進(jìn)行銷售。蔣教授指出：“內(nèi)地人口眾多，去豪華的超市購物對他們來說是一種奢侈。電子商務(wù)可以填補空白，可能會搶走實體店越來越多的業(yè)務(wù)”。比如，國美電器希望在未來的兩到三年間，國美網(wǎng)上商城的銷售額能占到國美銷售總額的15％、占到中國網(wǎng)上家用電子產(chǎn)品銷售總額的20％。 也許電子商務(wù)給中國零售業(yè)帶來的最大變化是更加以消費者為導(dǎo)向。IDC公司的張指出：“讓消費者感到滿意的方法已經(jīng)變了。他們將期待零售商提供更低的價格和更好的服務(wù)?！? 隨著中國的零售商學(xué)習(xí)如何更好地為客戶服務(wù)，中國的客戶將更多地體驗到作為‘上帝’的特權(quán)，中國將開始轉(zhuǎn)型為一個“消費者國家”。 7