華北科技學(xué)院畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)（論文） 外文科技資料翻譯 China’s Pathway to Low-carbon Development Abstract Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore China’s current policy and policy options regarding the shift to a low-carbon (LC) development. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses both a literature review and empirical systems analysis of the trends of socio-economic conditions, carbon emissions and development of innovation capacities in China. Findings – The analysis shows that a holistic solution and co-bene?t approach are needed for China’s transition to a green and LC economy, and that, especially for developing countries, it is not enough to have only goals regarding mitigation and adaptation. Instead, a concrete roadmap towards a LC future is needed that addresses key issues of technology transfer, institutional arrangements and sharing the costs in the context of a global climate regime. In this light, it is argued that China should adopt an approach for low-carbon development centred on carbon intensity reduction over the next ten years. Originality/value – The paper thus provides a unique summary, in English, of the arguments supporting China’s current low-carbon innovation policies from one of the authors of this policy. Keywords：Carbon, Sustainable development, Environmental management, Government policy, China Paper type – Research paper Climate change has become the most signi?cant environment and development challenge to human society in the twenty-?rst century. Responding to climate change is the core task to achieving global sustainable development, both for today and for a rather long period of time from today. International negotiations on prevention of global warming and related actions not only concern the human living environment, but also directly impact the modernization process of developing countries. Although the process of global climate protection depends on the consensus of our scienti?c awareness, political wills, economic interests, society’s level ofacceptance, as well as measures adopted, a low-carbon (LC) development path is, undoubtedly, the critical choice of future human development. The science basis of climate change and its extended political and economic implications Global warming of the climate system has become an unequivocal fact. According to a large amount of monitoring data, global average land surface temperature has risen 0.748C over the last century (IPCC, 2007a, b, c, d). And the rate of rising has been sped up. In the meantime, global average sea level has been constantly rising too. Global warming has posed a serious challenge to China’s climate, environment and development. In the global context of climate change, China’s climate and environment are changing too. For instance, in the last century, the land surface average temperature has witnessed an obvious increase; though the precipitation has not changed too much, its interdecadal variations and regional disparity have been big. In the last 50 years, there have also been major changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events (Editorial Board of China’s National Assessment Report on Climate Change, 2007). The IPCC (2007a, b, c, d) integrated assessment shows that since 1750, human activities have been a major cause of global warming, while in the last 50 years, most of the global warming is the consequence of human activities, with a probability of more than 90 per cent, in particular from the greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions due to the human use of fossil fuels. It is forecast that before the end of the twenty-?rst century, global warming will continue, and how much the temperature will rise depends on what actions humans will take. According the Third Working Group Report of the IPCC fourth Assessment (IPCC, 2007a, b, c, d), human actions to mitigate climate change are feasible, both economically and technologically. Actions to deploy key mitigation technologies in various sectors, adopting policy and administrative interference and shifting the development pathway could all contribute greatly to mitigation of climate change. With China becoming the world’s largest CO2emitter, China faces increasing pressure to reduce its emissions. Being a responsible country, China will take actions to tackle climate change. When developing its mitigation target, China will consider such factors as level ofevelopment, technology know-how, social impact, international image and a new international climate regime underpinned by fairness and effectiveness. China will move into a win-win development path to achieve climate protection, quality economic development and other related policy targets. To develop LC economy – background, opportunities and challenges As illustrated above, systematic solutions are required to tackle climate change, due to the complexity of the global climate system as well as its coverage of broad social and economic issues. After nearly two decades’ exploration, human society has realized that in order to effectively mitigate and adapt to climate change, we have to fundamentally reduce our reliance on fossil fuels, which means that we have to achieve the shift to a LC future from the way we produce and consume to how global assets are allocated (including industries, technology, capitals and resources) and how they are transferred. From the perspective of the limited storage capacity of GHGs in the climate system as a global public good, both a high level of human wisdom and a new international climate regime to deal with market failure are required, which also demands the participation of all stakeholders and together they shall charter a new development pathway. Human society has to pay the economic prices to solve climate warming. Thus, the three ?exible “mechanisms” in the Kyoto Protocol ( joint implementation, emissions trading and clean development mechanism) demonstrate a meaningful experiment for the Annex I countries to decrease their emissions reduction costs. What is needed is to move forward from where we are now to explore a more universally applicable mechanism that would effectively allocate the resources among the key responsible stakeholders. The LC development path embodies an integrated solution strategy. It aims to build up a LC society through LC economic development, tries to achieve the restructuring of all the key elements discussed above and offers new opportunities for human society in response to climate change through collaborations. As a fundamental venue to coordinate social and economic development, guarantee energy security and respond to climate change, development of LC economy is gradually gaining the needed consensus from more and more countries. Though without a ?xed academic de?nition, the core of developing a LC economy is to establish a development pathway that has high-energy ef?ciency, low-energy consumption and low emissions. Under a fair and effective international climate regime, the ef?ciency of energy exploration, generation, transmission, transformation and use is expected to be increased greatly and energy consumption greatly reduced, so that the carbon intensity in energy supply for economic growth is dramatically reduced, along with the carbon emissions from energy consumption. Through increasing carbon sink and using carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, the GHG emissions from fossil fuels that are hard to reduce can be offset. In the meanwhile, through the establishment of reasonable and fair technology transfer and ?nancial support mechanisms, developing countries can undertake the costs of shifting towards LC patterns while being at the lowest end of the value chain in the international trade structure. The perspectives of development value need to be changed in order to promote the transition of consumption towards a sustainable and LC future. What needs to be clari?ed is that, due to the differences of various countries’ social and economic contexts, the starting points towards a LC future might vary, as might the pursued goals. For developed countries that are taking the lead to commit to reduction targets, their ?rst objective to develop a LC economy is to reduce emissions. For developing countries whose economies are still at a fast growing stage, their ?rst priority is development and their per capita energy consumption is expected to continue to grow. The objectives shall be multiple. At the current stage, it is hard to mainstream the climate change policies domestically. What is possible is to reduce energy intensity and increase carbon productivity in order to gradually decouple economic growth and carbon emissions. What is equally important is that there exist many uncertainties in development of LC economy, particularly for developing countries. Tremendous difficulties and barriers need to be overcome in the process. At the international level, the uncertainties of developing LC economy include: Costs and markets – at this moment we could hardly be able to estimate the whole costs that are required to develop a LC economy. It is far from being as simple as calculating the direct costs of adopting LC technologies. It also takes time to establish LC technology and product markets, especially now, when the global ?nancial crisis has hit everyone hard and when no one can give a good estimate about when the world economy could turn around and recover; though many experts and scholars hold that the response to the long-term climate change could bring new opportunities to economic recovery (Stiglitz, 2009; Wang, 2008b). What makes the situation more complicated now is how the USA, China, India and other key countries would participate in the establishment of a LC market. Establishment of a fair international climate regime and mid- to long-term targets to tackle climate change – the development of a LC economy also depends on the international climate negotiation process and its result, of which the most critical element is whether it will result in legally binding global emissions reduction targets and the corresponding mechanisms of technology transfer and ?nancial support, even if this was not established at Copenhagen. To date, even though some EU countries have achieved the decoupling of economic growth and carbon emissions, LC economy has not generated universally applicable, successful experiences; and what those experiences mean to developing countries still needs to be ?gured out and tested overtime. For developing countries, the dif?culties and barriers to developing a LC economy are obvious, including current stage of development, international trade structure, economic costs, inadequate market, technology diffusion system, institutional arrangement, incentive policy and management system. From the historic evolution of the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in industrialized countries, most countries experienced successively the inverted U-shape curves of carbon intensity, per capita carbon emissions, and then total carbon emissions. But different countries or regions vary greatly in economic development level or per capita gross domestic product (GDP) relative to the carbon emissions peak. This shows that there does not exist a single, exact turning point between economic growth and carbon emissions. If you examine those countries or regions that have passed the carbon emissions pe ak, roughly 24-91 years, on average 55 years, are required between the peak of carbon emissions intensity and that of per capita carbon emissions. Some driving forces to reach different peaks have been shown in Figure 1 in terms of experience in the past and scenario analysis in the future. The point is, without strong mandatory emissions reduction measures and external support, developing countries will need relatively longer time to reach the peak of carbon emissions growth and then stabilize and decrease Strategic measures On the basis of the above-mentioned analysis, the LC path with Chinese characteristics shall also focus on gradually setting up “resource-ef?cient, environment-friendly and LC-oriented” society. Guided by LC development strategy and its targets, efforts shall be made to develop relevant institutional arrangements, improve management systems, stipulate development plans, accumulate experience from demonstrations and pilots, and push forward LC economic development in an orderly manner, so that a sustainable and LC future can be shaped for China. Four major aspects are the key starting points to structure a LC social and economy system: (1) Establish a legal and regulatory framework addressing climate change and improving the macro-management system. The legislative feasibility and legal model of “Law to Address Climate Change” shall be debated and articulated. Also, in the legislation process of other laws and regulations, articles related to response to climate change shall be included. For instance, a technical guideline of strategic environmental assessment shall include articles related to climate change impact assessment. A legal and regulatory framework of responding to climate change will gradually emerge. Owing to the fact that China’s administrative authority in charge of climate change remains weak and lacks capability, ?rst, the Leading Group of the State’s Response to Climate Change and Energy Saving and Pollution Reduction Work shall play its full roles when a more ?exible and diverse departmental coordination mechanism is established; and the group shall put forward strategic measure recommendations in response to climate change. Second, capacity building shall be strengthened and more administrative resources shall be allocated, so that better preparation is made for the next round of government restructuring to further improve the administrative level of the government department in charge of climate change. (2) Establish long-acting mechanism framework of LC development and stipulate related LC development policies in an orderly manner. Institutional innovation is the key to embarking on a LC development path. China shall become more pragmatic in developing a long-term incentive mechanism and policy measures that are in favour of energy saving, environmental protection and climate protection, guided by the balanced development framework and achieve the LC transition at government and business levels. At this moment, many regions and cities have expressed their interest and enthusiasm toward LC development. As well as the complexity of LC economy and the diversity of models, related guidelines shall be rolled out to guide the macro policy and regulate the content, model, direction of development and assessment indicator system of a LC economy. Experiences and lessons from other countries can be examined and learned in order to move forward LC development in an orderly and healthy manner. Special planning and programs shall be developed at national level, and then some representative regions and cities, as well as some key sectors, can be selected for LC piloting purpose. When the market matures, LC markets shall be set up through regulating the pricing mechanism and stipulating ?scal and incentive policies. (3) Strengthen collaboration and establish a healthy LC technology system. Technological innovation is the core element in LC development. Government shall adopt integrated measures to offer a relaxed and favourable policy environment for business development and create and provide better institutional guarantees for technological innovation. As a result, the R&D and diffusion of high-energy ef?ciency and LC emissions technologies can be strengthened in both production and consumption. A diverse LC technology system will be gradually built for energy saving and energy ef?ciency, clean coal and clean energy, renewable energy and new energy, as well as carbon sinks. The level of commercialization will be improved. Thus, a strong technological foundation will be provided for LC transition and shift in the ways of economic growth. China shall also further strengthen international collaboration, not only through the climate-related international cooperation mechanism to import, absorb and adopt advanced technologies from other countries, but more importantly, through participating in the stipulation of related international sectoral energy ef?ciency standards and standard of carbon intensity, as well as benchmarking. China could consider voluntary or mandatory benchmarking management to elevate some key LC technologies, equipment and products to international leadership level. (4) Establish collaboration mechanism with all stakeholders’ participation. Low-carbon development is not just for government or business; instead, it requires all related stakeholders’ as well as the whole society’s participation. Owing to the fact that there exist some inadequacies in the general public’s awareness of climate change, publicity, education and training are required in combination with policy incentives to transform the public’s perception and thinking, increase the public’s awareness on response to climate change and gradually reach consensus on focusing on LC consumption behaviours and models. Joint actions with all the stakeholders are needed to resist the potential risks from climate change. References： EIA (2008), International Energy Outlook, EIA, USDOE, Washington, DC. He, J. (2008), “Addressing climate change through developing low carbon economy”, Keynote Speech in Sino-Danish Forum on Climate Change, Beijing October 23. IEA (2008), World Energy Outlook 2008, IEA, Paris. IPCC (2007a), Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, available at: www.ipcc.ch IPCC (2007b), Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change, available at: www.ipcc.ch IPCC (2007c), Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, available at: www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf IPCC (2007d), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basic, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Jiang, K. (2007), “A scenario research on China’s greenhouse gas emissions”,International Climate Change Regime: A Study on Key Issues in China, China Environmental Sciences Press, Beijing, pp. 8-24. Stiglitz, J.E. (2009), “Three ways to global economic recovery”, available at: http://news.sina.com.cn/pl/2009-01-13/082317033320.shtml Wang, Y. (2008a), “A low carbon path with Chinese characteristics”, Greenleaf, No. 8, pp. 46-52. Wang, Y. (2008b), Summary of Sino-Danish Forum on Climate Change: Not to Delay Climate Change Progress by Financial Crisis, available at: www.p5w.net/news/gjcj/200810/ t1981142.htm 譯文： 中國低碳發(fā)展的途徑 摘要： 目的：這篇論文的是探索中國現(xiàn)存的政策和針對低碳發(fā)展政策的其他可選方向。 計(jì)劃、方法論、方式：本論文用到了文獻(xiàn)綜述和實(shí)驗(yàn)系統(tǒng)分析了社會經(jīng)濟(jì)條件趨勢的，碳的釋放和中國創(chuàng)新能力發(fā)展。 調(diào)查結(jié)果：分析結(jié)果顯示，中國綠色和低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的過渡需要一個(gè)全面的解決方案和共同利益的方式，特別是對發(fā)展中國家，僅僅以緩解和適應(yīng)去對待作為唯一目標(biāo)是不足的，相反，技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)變的關(guān)鍵問題是需要一個(gè)對低碳未來具體的規(guī)劃圖，，體制安排和分擔(dān)在全球氣候制度方面的費(fèi)用。有鑒于此，有人認(rèn)為中國應(yīng)采取低碳發(fā)展的方針，未來十年圍繞在降低碳強(qiáng)度上。 創(chuàng)意、價(jià)值：因此，本文作者之一用英文提供了論據(jù)支持中國目前的低碳技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的政策獨(dú)特論點(diǎn)。 關(guān)鍵詞：碳、可持續(xù)發(fā)展、環(huán)境管理、政府政策、中國 論文類型：研究型論文 氣候變化已成為二十一世紀(jì)的人類社會最重要的環(huán)境和發(fā)展的挑戰(zhàn)。應(yīng)對氣候變化是實(shí)現(xiàn)全球可持續(xù)發(fā)展的核心任務(wù)，既是為了當(dāng)下也要考慮未來。防止全球變暖和相關(guān)的行動的談判，不只是關(guān)注人類的生存環(huán)境，而且還直接影響到發(fā)展中國家的現(xiàn)代化進(jìn)程。盡管全球氣候保護(hù)的進(jìn)程取決于我們的科學(xué)意識的共識，政治意愿，經(jīng)濟(jì)利益，社會的接受程度，以及采取的措施，低碳（LC）的發(fā)展道路，無疑是人類未來發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵選擇。 氣候變化及其延伸的政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的科學(xué)依據(jù) 全球氣候系統(tǒng)的變暖已經(jīng)成為一個(gè)明確的事實(shí)。根據(jù)大量的監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)，在過去一個(gè)世紀(jì)全球平均地表溫度上升0.740C（IPCC，2007年A，B，C，D）。上升的速度已經(jīng)加快。在此期間，全球平均海平面不斷上升。全球變暖已經(jīng)構(gòu)成了對中國的氣候，環(huán)境和發(fā)展的嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)。在全球氣候變化的背景下，中國的氣候和環(huán)境正在發(fā)展變化。例如，在上個(gè)世紀(jì)，已經(jīng)目睹了地表平均溫度明顯的增加，但降水并未改變太多，其年代變化和區(qū)域差距已經(jīng)很大。在過去50年中，在極端天氣和氣候事件的頻率和強(qiáng)度上也出現(xiàn)了重大變化（中國國家評估報(bào)告氣候變化的編輯委員會，2007） 政府間氣候變化專門委員會（2007年A，B，C，D）的綜合評估顯示，自1750年以來，人類活動是全球變暖的主要原因，而在過去50年中，全球氣候變暖的大部分是與人類活動的后果，超過90％，在特定的溫室氣體（GHG）因·人類使用化石燃料排放的概率。據(jù)預(yù)測，二十一世紀(jì)結(jié)束之前，全球變暖將繼續(xù)，氣溫將上升多少取決于什么將采取行動的人。根據(jù)IPCC第四次評估（“監(jiān)理會”，2007年A，B，C，D），人類的行動，以減輕氣候變化是可行的，既有經(jīng)濟(jì)上和技術(shù)上的第三個(gè)工作組的報(bào)告。行動部署在各個(gè)領(lǐng)域的關(guān)鍵減緩技術(shù)，采取的政策和行政干預(yù)，轉(zhuǎn)移的發(fā)展途徑，都可以大大有助于減緩氣候變化。 隨著中國成為世界上最大的二氧化碳排放國，中國正面臨著越來越大的壓力，以減少其排放量。作為一個(gè)負(fù)責(zé)任的大國，中國將采取行動應(yīng)對氣候變化。當(dāng)發(fā)展中國家的減排目標(biāo)，中